Basic Arbitrage Calculations
There are several different ways to calculate arbs. The example on the previous page shows the most straight forward way to calculate exactly how much you will win or lose on a trade. Find your two best odds, pick a value that you want the final winnings to be, divide that figure by each of the two odds, and add those two numbers together. That answer is your investment and the final winnings that you chose is how much you will have after the bets have been cleared. If the winnings are greater than the investment, you have an arb.
Find your odds:
BWin = 1.20
Pinnacle Sports = 8.00
Pick your winnings: $1000 (this is an arbitrary amount. The higher the sum you pick, the larger the bets and the greater the profit)
| (1000 / 1.20) | + | (1000 / 8.00) | = | your total outlay |
| 833.33 | + | 125.00 | = | $958.33 |
You now know exactly how much you are outlaying ($958.33) and how much to bet at each bookie ($833.33 at BWin, and $125.00 at Pinnacle Sports).
Calculating your profit is just as easy
:
| Winnings | - | Outlay | = | your total Profit |
| 1,000 | - | 958.33 | = | $41.67 |
And finally, to calculate your return on investment you simply divide your profit by the initial amount invested: 41.67 / 958.33 = 4.35%
This method does not allow you freedom with your calculations though. If Pinnacle only has $96.54 in it, you would have to guess and check the winnings amount in order to find the right volume to match your betting limitations. The method used for these calculations are explained on the advanced calculations page, using the concepts described below in the Arbitrage Percentage section.
Calculating Arbitrage Percentages
All arbitrages are expressed as a percentage. Contrary to usual expectation, this percentage is not your return on investment. The arbitrage percentage is calculated by dividing 1 by each set of odds and then adding them together.
- 1 / 1.20 = 83.333%
- 1 / 8.00 = 12.5%
- 83.333% + 12.5% = 95.833%
This percentage, 95.833%, indicates what portion your investment will take up of the total winnings. In other words, if your winnings were to be $1000 as used in the example above, the two bets add up to $958.33, 95.83% of the winning. This means that 4.17% of the winnings is left over as profit. People often refer to arbs as a "95.83% arb" and sometimes people refer to them as a "4.17% arb" meaning exactly the same thing. Notice that 4.17% is not the same as your return on investment (4.35%) because 4.17% is the percentage of the total winnings, not of the amount invested.
More surebet resources
Surebet arbitrage scalping examples of sports betting
Basic surebet arbitrage calculations
