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May 2013

Real Arbitrage Examples

UEFA - Steaua Bucharest Vs Real Madrid

Gamebookers offered odds of 2.08 on Bucharest with a +0.5 handicap.

Victor Chandler offered odds of 2.02 on Real Madrid with a -0.5 handicap
\$1000 / 2.08 = \$480.76
\$1000 / 2.02 = \$495.05

So if we place a \$480 bet on Bucharest (+0.5) at Gamebookers and a \$495 bet on Real Madrid (-0.5) at Victor Chandler, we commit \$975 in bets to win roughly \$1000 regardless of the outcome..

In the end Real Madrid won, securing the \$24.90 profit:
\$495 x 2.02 = \$999.90
\$999.90 - \$975 = \$24.90

That is a 2.55% return on investment.

ATP - Berrer Vs Robredo

Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 5.7 on Berrer to win.

Expekt offered odds of 1.25 on Robredo to win
\$1000 / 5.70 = \$175.44
\$1000 / 1.25 = \$800.00

Place a \$175 bet on Berrer at Pinnacle Sports and an \$800 bet on Robredo at Expekt and you will make a profit of either \$22.50 or \$25. Assuming the favourite wins, that is a 2.56% return on investment.

English Premiership - Reading Vs Arsenal

Pinnacle Sports has odds of 7.00 on Reading to win

LadBrokes has odds of 17.00 on a draw

Gamebookers has odds of 1.30 on Arsenal to win
\$1000 / 7.00 = \$142.85
\$1000 / 17.00 = \$58.82
\$1000 / 1.30 = \$769.23

By placing those 3 bets we are committing (140 + 60 + 770) \$970 in order to lock in a winnings of either (140 x 7) \$980, (60 x 17) \$1020, or (770 x 1.3) \$1001. If the underdog wins (unlikely), we will make \$10 profit. If it is a draw (most unlikely) we will make \$50 profit. If the favourite wins (most likely) we will make \$31.

Clearly in this arb, as in all arbs, you can change the bets on each side a little in order to affect profits from that outcome. Often the favourite will win, and so people like to bias the bets in the favour of that outcome. However as you can see here, a small increase in the bet on Draw (rounded up from \$58.82 to \$60) resulted in a large increase in profits for that outcome. Thus in this example it would be possible to place a risk free bet on the draw and make quite a substantial profit.

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